A Stochastic Model of Indigenous Language Extinction in Nigeria

The need to capture the dynamics of indigenous language decline is the main motivation for this study. Drawing from the theory of Poisson and branching processes, we conceptualize language decline as a Poisson process, and derive expressions and estimates for the intergenerational transmission probability, the probability of eventual extinction and the mean number of transfers per family. For model validation, a household survey was conducted in a community in Warri, Nigeria. Demographic information about the community was elicited through a multi-dimensional questionnaire, as well as data on the actual number of children who were able to imbibe their heritage language, across two generations.  A massive demographic shift was observed in the family sizes over the two generations studied, with a steep decline in language transmission from one generation to the other.  Our study also showed that a great proportion of parents in the sampled community hardly impart their language to their offspring.  Our findings indicate that some indigenous languages are under serious threat of extinction if conscious steps are not taken to arrest the decline. This simple, yet powerful model can be used to ascertain the status of any indigenous language.

 

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