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Transfer function modelling of covid-19 pandemic in Nigeria


G.O. Nwafor, H.C. Iwu and U.N. Anyasodo.

JOURNAL: Journal of the Nigerian Statistical Association, Vol 34,2022.
YEAR: 2022


The research work on transfer function modelling of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria purposely describes and adequately model the daily cases of COVID-19 from April to August 2020. The study yields a theoretical and empirical knowledge on the disease with univariate transfer function model and ARIMA (2, 1, 3) model. The fitted transfer function and ARIMA model is adequate for the study. The augmented Dick-Fuller (ADF) unit root test was used to test the stationarity of the series. The residual plot of the series shows adequacy of the fitted model. The study provides an estimate of the parameters via the transfer function which yields forecast value of 200 days of increasing daily cases. The study recommends the use of preventive measures stated here as non-adherence to increase the number of cases. An appropriate transfer function model was specified and its parameters were estimated. The choice of the best model is based on the model selection criteria application to the research. The univariate transfer function model is the best model for describing the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria. Evidently, from the forecast values, there exists a gradual increase of the cases of coronavirus in Nigeria as days go by. This is as a result of non-compliance to the preventive measures put in place by government and related agencies.


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