Nigerian Statistical Association Logo - A Galaxy of Professional Statisticians
The third edition of the Nigerian Statistical Association Competition for Undergraduate students will commence on the 24th to 30th of July 2022

An Econometric Analysis of Crime Determinants in Nigeria


D. A. Kuhe

JOURNAL: Journal of the Nigerian Statistical Association Vol. 28, 2016
YEAR: 2016


This paper attempts to investigate the impact of some macro-economic variables such as absolute poverty, unemployment rate, inflation rate, lending interest rate and population growth rate on crime level in Nigeria. The study uses annual time series data of the six listed variables from 1970 - 2015. The unit root and stationarity properties of the series are examined using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test. Johansen cointegration, FMOLS, error correction model as well as Granger causality test based on Toda-Yamamoto procedure are employed to find the long-term relationship, impact of study variables on crime, the long-run and short-run dynamics, speed of adjustment as well as causality among study variables. The results shows that all variables are integrated of order one and hence cointegrated. The study finds population growth,unemployment, poverty, and inflation as having a positive and significant impact on crime level in Nigeria. The Error Correction Model identified a sizable speed of adjustment by 93.20% for disequilibrium correction annually for attaining long-run equilibrium steady-state position. The Granger causality test results revealed that crime is Granger caused by population growth, absolute poverty, unemployment, inflation and lending interest rate in Nigeria. The study provides some policy recommendations.


Aminu, U., Manu, D., El-Maude, J.G. and Kabiru, M.Y. (2013) Relationship between Crime Level, Unemployment, Poverty, Corruption and Inflation in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis. Global Advanced Research Journal of Management and Business Studies. 2(8): 411-422

Anderson, E. (1990) Streetwise: Race, Class and Change in and Urban Community.Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 76-89

Anderson, E. (1999) Code of the Street: Decency, Violence and the Moral Life of the Inner City, New York: W.W. Norton and Company, 53-71

Anasi, S. N. (2010) Curbing youth restweres in Nigeria: The role of information & Libraness. Retrieved 24:2:2014 www.digitalcommon.uniedu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi.article=1404

Archibong, E. P., Effiom, J. N. and Ojua, T.A. (2014) An Assessment of the Impact of Poverty on Criminal Behaviour Among Youths: A Case of Akpabuyo Local Government Area, Nigeria. European Journal of Business and Social Sciences, 3(2): 24-31

Aurangzeb, C. D. and Khola, A. (2013) Factors Electing Unemployment: A Cross Country Analysis. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 3(1): 219-230

Becker, G. S. (1968) Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach. Journal of Political Economy, 169-217

Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W. (1979) Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association,74(366): 427-431.

Demombynes, G. and Ozler, D. (2002) Crime and Local Inequality in South Africa.Mimeograph, 7(3): 78-91

Deutsch, J., Spiegel, U. and Templeman, J. (1992) Crime and Economic Inequality:An Economic Approach. Atlantic Economic Journal, 20(4): 46-54

Ehrlich, I. (1973) Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation. Journal of Political Economy, 81(3): 521-565

Ehrlich, I. (1975) On the Relation between Education and Crime: In F. T. Juster(ed.) Education, Income and Human Behavior, McGraw-Hill, New York, 313-337

Ehrlich, I. (1996) Crime, Punishment, and the Market for Oenses. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10(1): 43-67

Fafchamps, M. and Minten, B. (2002) Crime and Poverty: Evidence from a Natural Experiment. CSAE Working Paper Series, 23

Fajnzylber, P., Lederman, D., and Loayza, N. (2000) Crime and Victimization: An Economic Perspective. Economia, 219-302

Fajnzylber, P., Lederman, D., and Loayza, N. (2002) What Causes Violent Crime? European Economic Review, 46 (2): 1323-1357

Fleisher, B. M. (1963) The Effect of Unemployment on Juvenile Delinquency. Journal of Political Economy, 71(6): 543-555

Fleisher, B. M. (1966) The Effect of Income on Delinquency. American Economic Review, 56(1): 118-37

Fumio, O. and Miki, K. (2010) The Relationship between Unemployment and Crime: Evidence from Time-Series Data and Prefectural Panel Data. Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University, 21-39

Gbosi, A.N. (2004) Modern Labour Economics and Policy Analysis. Abakaliki, Pack Publishers, 121-133

Gillani, S.Y.M., Rehman, H.U. and Gill, A.R. (2009), Unemployment, Poverty, Inflation and Crime Nexus: Cointegration and Causality Analysis of Pakistan. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 47(1): 79-98

Haralambos, M. and Holborn, M. (2000) Sociology: Themes and perspectives. London. Harper Collins Publishers Limited, 69-75

Johansen, S. (1991) Estimation and Hypothesis Testing for Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector autoregressive models, Econometrica, 59: 1551-1580.

Johansen, S. (1995) Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 190-221

Kuhe, D.A., Chiawa, M.A. and Aboiyar, T. (2016) A Time Series Model of Poverty Incidence in Nigeria. Journal of Scientific and Engineering Research, 3(2): 261-283

Lott, J. R. (1990) A Transaction-Cost Explanation for Why the Poor Are More Likely to Commit Crime. Journal of Legal Studies, 19: 243-45

MacKinnon, J. G., Haug, A.A. and Michelis, L. (1999) Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 14: 563-577.

Massey, D. S. (1995) Getting Away with Murder: Segregation and Violent Crime in Urban America. University of Pennsylvania Law Review, 143(5): 1203-1232

Majid, M. (2013) An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Unemployment and Theft Crimes. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(1):50-53

Nweze, N.J. and Ojowu, O. (2002) Poverty, well being and Wealth Creation in Benue State, A Draft Report, 1-21

Okpo, O. (2013) Crime and Crime Prevention in Nigeria. In Punch News Paper,8th August 2015

Toda, H.Y. and Yamamoto, T. (1995) Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1 & 2): 225-250.

Torruam, J, T. and Abur, C. C. (2014) The Relationship between Unemployment, Inflation, and Crime: An Application of Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 5(4): 131-137

World Bank (2004) World Development Report: Marking Services Work for the Poor. Washington, D.C: IBRD/World Bank, 306


Our journal is now available to everyone
Download Journal

Journal of the Nigerian Statistical Association Vol. 28, 2016


Privacy Policy Terms of Service © 2024 Nigerian Statistical Association - All Rights Reserved Developed by Masterweb Solutions